Archive notice: This article was originally published on October 15, 2007. Links and embedded videos are preserved as part of the historical record.
The decision by the Federal Network Agency and the state media authorities on the allocation of operator licenses for the Digital Video Broadcasting-Handheld (DVB-H-) network is expected in the coming days. After the initial euphoria about the business potential, disillusionment is now more evident in the market. This results from the still widely divergent ideas about the distribution of opportunities and risks between the individual parties. According to the assessment of the Telecom, Media & Entertainment consulting unit of Capgemini Consulting, the establishment of mobile television in Germany will therefore be only very hesitant in the initial phase. Calculations by the consulting company show market potential for mobile TV in Germany of three million users and 180 million euros in revenue in 2012. Ralf Gordon Jahns, Principal at Capgemini Consulting: “All parties involved – network operators, content suppliers and also
mobile communications companies – must pursue a common interest. Squabbles over the business model harm everyone and lead to users not accepting the service.”
Revenue potential of 180 million euros in 2012
Previous studies assume nine to twelve million mobile-TV customers by 2012. In view of a lengthy build-up phase, the currently still low availability of suitable end devices and the necessary cooperation of
mobile network operators, DVB-H network operator and content suppliers such as television broadcasters, however, reaching the minimum economic size of three million users by 2012 is the more realistic scenario. Depending on the average revenue per user, the break-even point can thus be reached in about four to five years. Revenue in 2012 would amount to 180 million euros under the assumptions made. According to Capgemini Consulting, the primary source for this
in the start-up phase is subscription fees with a share of around 80 percent. However, the offerings can only be operated profitably through additional revenues from advertising, on-demand services or shopping offerings.
