The companies see considerable demand. Market leader T-Mobile found interest in moving images on mobile phones among one quarter of its more than 30 million customers. Together with Vodafone D2 and O2, the Bonn-based operator formed a consortium intended to establish mobile television.
Mobile phones are therefore moving well beyond voice calls. The companies want television transmission to offset declining revenue in the mobile business. At launch, the DVB-H standard, Digital Video Broadcasting-Handheld, is expected to carry at least 16 channels to small handset screens. The consortium must first win the transmission licences offered by the state media authorities. A competing alliance involving Hubert Burda Media and Holtzbrinck is also applying.
Some studies estimate revenue potential of €450 million to €500 million by 2010. Experts remained sceptical and expected a slow start. “We believe mobile TV will arrive, but many assumptions are too high,” said Accenture consultant Nikolaus Mohr. He expected user numbers to rise only from 2011 or 2012.
International experience supported that caution. Mobile TV was booming in South Korea, but penetration of around one percent in Italy and the United Kingdom fell short of expectations. Mobile television had also struggled in Germany. debitel and mobilcom, now Freenet, made early attempts with the Korean DMB format, which supports only a small number of channels. With only a few thousand customers, DMB remained below their forecasts.
Despite restrained expectations, experts considered entry into mobile television worthwhile. “Overall, the aim is to offer customers a complete bouquet of different services in the digital world,” Mohr said, describing mobile television as an additional business. Market-research company Solon saw customer demand. “It is logical to want to use television, the most popular medium, while travelling,” said Solon consultant Henning Röper. The service would need to be clear, easy to operate, and supported by familiar television brands.
Television broadcasters also face additional production work because existing programmes are only partly suitable for mobile viewing. “It is unrealistic to believe that someone will watch a two-hour film on a small screen,” Mohr said. ProSieben and MTV had already begun producing dedicated mobile-TV programming. Experts expected sports coverage to provide the strongest impetus. “For football or the Olympics, customers will certainly be willing to pay for a form of coverage adapted to the handset,” Mohr said.
