Archive notice: This article was originally published on June 12, 2007. Links and embedded videos are preserved as part of the historical record.
Despite all delays and risks, the market researchers at Goldmedia forecast considerable revenue potential for television on the mobile phone in the new “Mobile TV 2012” study : Mobile TV could generate revenue of 655 million euros in Germany in 2012 and thus become an important cornerstone of the media industry. However, some hurdles would still have to be overcome on the way to the commercial market launch.
Only in recent weeks did the tender periods for the DVB-H mobile TV standard end at the Federal Network Agency and the state media authorities. Numerous companies applied, including content and mobile communications providers as well as independent platform operators.
The Goldmedia forecast is based on current results from market and user research as well as experience with commercial offerings abroad. In its analyses, Goldmedia assumes a commercial launch with the participation of the market-leading players from the content and mobile communications sectors by mid-2008 and assumes that the players will agree promptly on a viable business model.
However, if there are further delays in the highly complex process of allocating frequencies and capacities for Mobile TV in Germany, revenue development would also be slowed accordingly.
Even in a German television market shaped by free TV, Goldmedia sees real opportunities to establish a subscription-based business model for Mobile TV. Unlike on the Internet or in traditional television, mobile communications users are accustomed to paying for services. Results from user research in real-world tests would clearly show that there is a high willingness to pay for mobile phone TV in Germany, averaging 7.50 euros per month.
According to Goldmedia, the fact that current broadcast-based Mobile TV offerings still meet with little response is due mainly to two factors: On the one hand, not all leading content brands have yet been represented in the program offering; on the other hand, the large mobile network operators are not involved in marketing. “The economic market success of broadcast-based Mobile TV very clearly requires two things: a diverse program offering with attractive content brands and their distribution by the large mobile communications groups using the leading device brands,” explains Michael Schmid, Goldmedia consultant and author of the study.
Depending on the business model, specific market launch and the players involved, Goldmedia outlines various development scenarios in the study: In the Best Case, the augurs see revenue of more than 900 million euros for Mobile TV in Germany in 2012, while in the Worst Case it will be less than 200 million euros. A look at other media illustrates the dimensions of development in this young sector: The 655 million euros in revenue assumed for 2012 in the Realistic Case would already correspond to around one fifth of the net advertising revenue currently generated in television (2006: 4.1 billion euros). Mobile TV revenues in 2012 would also roughly equal today’s net advertising revenues in radio (2006: 680 million euros).
Internationally, there continue to be clear preferences for DVB-H for the transmission of mobile phone TV. While Mobile TV via this standard has already been introduced in Italy, Albania and Finland, a launch in Germany is not expected until 2008 at the earliest. However, the longer the start of a broad Mobile TV offering drags on, the higher the likelihood that alternative standards could also be preferred, the study concludes.
“In Germany, the players now urgently need to do their homework,” emphasizes Michael Schmid: “This includes in particular the legally secure allocation of broadcasting slots, agreement on a viable business model and the financial securing of a rapid transmitter network rollout. Balanced consideration of the interests of all market participants is important. Focusing on the maximum positions of individuals ultimately harms the development of the overall Mobile TV market.”
