Analysts’ Forecast: Malware to Break the 20 Million Mark in 2008

Kaspersky Lab expects a tenfold increase in the malware in circulation this year. After the number of viruses, worms and Trojans quadrupled last year, analysts at the Russian security company now foresee another significant acceleration of the growth trend. Malware is also becoming more technically sophisticated.

Archive notice: This article was originally published on April 10, 2008. Links and embedded videos are preserved as part of the historical record.

According to Kaspersky analysts, 2,227,415 new viruses, worms and Trojan programs were registered on the Internet in 2007. That is a fourfold increase compared with 535,131 in 2006. The total storage volume of all malicious programs detected in 2007 was 354 gigabytes. Last year’s sharp increase astonished many experts and caused difficulties for some antivirus companies, as they were simply unable to fend off the flood of new threats effectively.

For 2008, Kaspersky Lab’s analysts foresee an intensification of this trend. “According to our internal forecasts, we expect a tenfold increase in the number of new malicious programs this year,” warns virus analyst Magnus Kalkuhl. “The total number of malware could therefore break through the 20 million mark this year.”

Not only the quantity but also the quality of malicious programs is increasing. They already have a wide range of dangerous functions and methods of spreading, as demonstrated, for example, by the notorious Zhelatin worm, also known as the “Storm Worm”.

Last year, around 250,000 new threat signatures were added to Kaspersky Lab’s antivirus databases. Current estimates suggest that 1,000,000 new signatures will be added this year. The significant difference between the number of signatures and the number of newly discovered viruses is due to technology developed by Kaspersky Lab that allows a single signature to be used to neutralise dozens to hundreds of different malicious programs.

  • Kaspersky Lab

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