Linux is poised for strong growth in the mid-range and high-end mobile-device segments. Almost 20 percent of the corresponding devices will run Linux operating systems by 2013, according to a current forecast by analysts at ABI Research. In their assessment, mobile Linux will benefit not only from the major Linux-based phone platforms, but also from Nokia’s support for Maemo and its acquisition of Trolltech. Cost efficiency is a major factor.
According to ABI Research, Symbian and Microsoft had not taken Linux seriously in the mobile sector. But Linux has strong advocates in mobile phones, including the LiMo Foundation and Google with its Android platform. Nokia is also a powerful force for Linux through its open-source Maemo development platform, particularly in internet tablets. If issues such as framework fragmentation are resolved, these factors will give Linux a market share of around one fifth of mid-range and high-end mobile devices by 2013, ABI Research predicts.
“Linux operating-system solutions will be significantly more cost-effective than prevailing solutions,” says ABI Research Vice President Stuart Carlaw. Linux solutions will also become attractive through a more complete application layer and the fact that customer customization will fall mainly to independent software vendors. ABI Research also says Linux in particular will support content-rich environments for mid-range devices. It is also likely to prove an important component of an application environment that favors web-based applications.
Linux could therefore achieve greater success in the already highly fragmented mobile market than on desktop PCs. The largest Linux provider, Red Hat, stated last week that it has no plans for a consumer desktop product in the foreseeable future. The company currently sees no opportunity for a profitable business with an end-user Linux desktop version. “The desktop market suffers from having one dominant provider,” Red Hat says. Some still do not view Linux as a practical desktop alternative. Linux’s share of the desktop market is small: W3Counter’s web statistics passed the two-percent mark in March 2008, while other estimates generally range from one to two percent.
