Archive notice: This article was originally published on November 3, 2009. Links and embedded videos are preserved as part of the historical record.
Blu-ray will always have to pay tribute to competitors such as HDTV broadcasts, satellite television and download offerings. “With the wide choice available, we do not expect a platform as dominant as DVD. Accordingly, Blu-ray players are unlikely ever to reach the penetration of DVD players,” Jim Bottoms, Managing Director Corporate Development at market researcher Futuresource Consulting, told pressetext.de.
The analyst does not, however, regard alternative HD content as nails in Blu-ray’s coffin. Despite the initially slow spread of the winner of the HD format war, he believes Blu-ray has a relatively strong future. In the long run, consoles such as Xbox are unlikely to avoid the format, while inexpensive players will attract the broad mass of users.
Coexistence
“In our view, the various platforms can exist in parallel. This gives customers complete flexibility over how, when and where they want to enjoy entertainment content,” Bottoms says. For certain titles in particular, consumers will probably want to own physical discs with their extras, while in other cases online rental versions will satisfy viewers’ requirements.
The requirements of different customer segments also support successful coexistence between different ways of obtaining HD. Younger users or students are more likely to favour online offerings, according to the analyst. “Others, because of where they live or because of their age, will want only physical versions,” Bottoms continues.
Consoles Not So Important
The apparent absence of Blu-ray from Microsoft’s Xbox for the time being is no surprise to analysts. “An HD DVD add-on was a relatively simple and inexpensive addition compared with a Blu-ray equivalent,” Richard Cooper, video analyst at Screen Digest, told pressetext.
Although the console’s lack of Blu-ray was once a disadvantage for the format, it is becoming increasingly irrelevant, the analyst says. As Blu-ray acceptance increases, the relationship could even reverse. “A Blu-ray add-on could then be a way to consolidate Xbox as a central element in the living room,” Cooper says.
Bottoms is more specific. “I think we will see Blu-ray for Xbox when the 3D standard for Blu-ray is adopted later this year or early next year,” the analyst says. That timing would also fit rumours that the next version of Nintendo’s Wii console will support Blu-ray.
Question of Price
Ordinary Blu-ray players could be particularly successful during the coming months. “Given rapidly falling prices, people with DVD collections will increasingly replace their DVD devices with Blu-ray hardware to enjoy the best of both worlds,” Bottoms predicts. He points to indications that Blu-ray players could be available for under US$50 in the USA before the end of this year.
Disc sales may develop less strongly than hardware sales, also because of price. “Owners of Blu-ray players continue to buy some titles in standard definition because they do not consider them worth the HD surcharge,” Bottoms explains. Alternative ways of obtaining content would also have a negative impact here.
